Pascal's Wager

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Pascal’s Wager uses game theory to demonstrate that people should believe in God, because it offers the best cost-to-benefit ratio. The argument is summarized in the table below:

God Exists God Doesn’t Exist
You Believe Eternal heavenly bliss. You wasted all the time you spent worshiping.
You Disbelieve Eternal damnation. You saved all the time you would have spent worshiping.

However, there are three crippling problems with this argument:

  1. Pascal’s Wager was never intended to prove God’s existence. Pascal’s Wager is just an argument for going to church. Even then, it never actually solves or answers anything -- it just changes the question from “why?” to “why not?” Admittedly, this is a problem concerning the popular use of this argument, and not a flaw in the argument itself, but this problem appears frequently.

  2. Argument from Inconsistent Revelations. Many of the world’s religions independently developed their own version of Pascal’s Wager. By replacing the word “God” with “Ra,” “Odin,” or “Zeus,” then Pascal’s Wager becomes an equally valid argument for worshiping any of those gods. Pascal’s Wager requires the a priori assumption that you’ve selected the correct god. If the Old Testament prophets really screwed up, and it turns out that Ba’al is the Lord, then even the saints are damned. Pascal’s Wager can even be used to disprove the need for religion. If there is no God, or if God does not reward belief (e.g., dystheism), then religion is a huge waste of time and resources.

  3. Argument from Inauthentic Belief. If you only believe because of Pascal’s Wager, then your religious devotion is no more meaningful that any other fire insurance payment. An all-knowing God will realize that you’re only paying him lip service, and just putting up a front to win a big payout later. Pascal’s Wager is insufficient to “save” anyone, because it requires you to live a lie, and in turn, lie to God himself.